Tariffs risk slowing growth and making inflation stickier, a tricky combination for the central bank as it debates what to do about interest rates.
Until a few months ago, the Federal Reserve appeared close to achieving something that many doubted was possible. The economy looked on the cusp of a “soft landing,” a situation where inflation was headed back to the central bank’s 2 percent target without a recession. That put the central bank on track to steadily lower interest rates until borrowing costs reached a level that neither revved up growth nor slowed it down.
President Trump’s global trade war has thrown a wrench in those plans. Facing extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook, the central bank has put further interest rate cuts on hold until it has a better sense of how tariffs will affect the economy.
What policymakers are trying to sort out is whether they should be more concerned about the hit to growth that is expected from these levies or the probable boost to consumer prices. The “nightmare scenario,” according to Donald Kohn, the former vice chair of the Fed, is one in which inflation rises at the same time that the economy falters, a combination that carries the whiff of stagflation.
Making that assessment is by no means a straightforward exercise. Much will depend on how long the tariffs are in place, how other countries retaliate, and how consumers and businesses adapt. Officials are also keeping close tabs on other aspects of the Trump administration’s economic agenda, including steep government spending cuts, immigration restrictions and deregulation. Tax cuts are also on the docket, but because those require congressional approval, their timing and scope remain unclear.
At this stage, the economic data presents a mixed picture. Growth in the final quarter of last year was solid and the labor market has yet to show real signs of weakness. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains historically low and layoffs have yet to rise in a material way.
Most Americans do not expect this to last. According to recent sentiment surveys, the mood has significantly soured on the outlook because of Mr. Trump’s policies. Consumers now expect slower growth, higher unemployment and resurgent inflation.