President Trump’s tariffs are scrambling the Republican plan for the economy, long centered on tax cuts and growth.
The Republican Party embarked this week on a haphazard experiment in economic policymaking, wagering that the United States can weather a monumental tax increase in the form of broad tariffs on imported goods as long as Congress also cuts taxes on income.
It’s a mash-up that many investors, economists and even some G.O.P. lawmakers expect to be a failure.
“I always think that with gambling, at least you have a chance of winning. This is worse than that,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a conservative economist who worked for former President George W. Bush, said. “This is betting with the mafia. You’re going to lose.”
President Trump’s plan to charge at least a 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports into the United States — along with much higher rates on goods from many countries — is the culmination of his quest to force companies to manufacture domestically, even if it comes at the expense of a relatively strong economy. Because tariffs are a type of taxation, Mr. Trump’s plan is among the largest tax increases in decades, analysts say, a policy change that sent the stock market reeling, paralyzed corporate investment and shoved the economy closer to a recession.
At the same time, Republicans on Capitol Hill are plowing forward with legislation that would lock in lower taxes for American individuals and companies. There’s diminishing hope among Republicans that those cuts can make up for drag created by the tariffs. Some of Mr. Trump’s allies and tax cut enthusiasts, like Stephen Moore, his former economic adviser, have been begging the president for “more tax cuts and less tariffs, please.”
Of course, Mr. Trump and the White House argue that tariffs are not taxes on Americans, but rather on foreign companies that will have to lower their prices to maintain access to the U.S. market. Mainstream economists have consistently found that tariffs raise prices for American consumers and companies, including domestic manufacturers who import materials to turn into final products.