Current and former employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and other agencies say they have confidence in the numbers.
Can we still trust the data coming out of the Trump administration?
It’s a question I get all the time — on social media, in comments on my stories, in conversations with friends and colleagues. That skepticism has only intensified in recent days, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that it was cutting back collection of price data that feeds into the Consumer Price Index.
Here’s my answer: Yes, I still trust the data. But with some important caveats.
Many of the people asking this question are worried about the possibility of political interference in the data-collection or analysis process. There is no evidence that is happening. Major economic reports on inflation, spending, trade and jobs have continued to come out as normal, even when the news has been potentially damaging to the president (such as when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter).
I have spoken to people inside these agencies, and to others who have recently left, and they consistently say they are confident that the numbers being released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and other agencies remain reliable. They also say that the longtime employees who oversee these statistics will blow the whistle if that changes. (Are you one of them? See our call-out at the end of this article.)
But while there is no evidence of political interference, many economists and other experts have a different concern: the gradual erosion in the quality of government statistics.
These concerns aren’t entirely new. Much of our economic data relies on surveys of individuals and businesses; response rates to those surveys have fallen sharply in recent years, as they have for surveys and polls conducted in the private sector.
Many statisticians believe the agencies need to adopt new methods that rely less on surveys and more on data from administrative records and private sources like credit card companies and payroll providers. But that transition would require substantial upfront investment, and the agencies have seen their budgets shrink in inflation-adjusted terms. A major report from the American Statistical Association last year warned that these long-running issues threatened the reliability of government statistics.
Are you a current or former worker at a federal statistical agency? We want to hear from you.
The New York Times would like to talk to current or recent workers at the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and other federal statistical agencies about their experiences under the second Trump administration. We are also interested in talking to contractors for these agencies. We may reach out about your submission, but we will not publish any part of your response without contacting you first.