The two leading candidates, Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney, both plan to fight the U.S., its largest trading partner, over tariffs. But who would be more successful as relations grow icy?
Canada chooses a leader to take on Trump
Canadians vote on Monday to determine which political party forms their next government.
But President Trump’s tariff assault on Canada and his vow to annex the country and make it the 51st state have turned the federal election into a referendum on which of the two contenders — Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberal Party or Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives — can best handle the American president, Ian Austen writes for DealBook.
The only English-language election debate last week opened with the moderator asking Carney, who has been the prime minister for just over a month, what the “starting point” would be for talks with the Trump White House.
“The starting point has to be one of strength,” Carney responded.
Both candidates have promised a tough response. Trump’s belittling of Canada’s sovereignty and his tariffs, which have already led to layoffs and concerns about factory closings, have prompted a surge of patriotism among Canadians and open hostility toward the United States — the country’s largest trading partner. In sharp contrast with Mexico’s approach of dealing with Trump, both Carney and Poilievre have vowed to fight back.
Here are the strategies they’ve campaigned on:
Hit back: Carney has emphasized his commitment to retaliatory tariffs. Poilievre has said that they are necessary to “deter” Trump’s trade attacks. Canada has imposed tariffs on imports from the United States that are expected to generate about 38 billion Canadian dollars annually, or about $27 billion.
Trump has imposed tariffs against key sectors of Canada’s industrial economy: 25 percent levies on autos, aluminum and steel, and a similar levy on goods that are outside the scope of the trade agreement among the United States, Canada and Mexico. A tariff on auto parts is scheduled to take effect on Saturday.
Autos and auto parts are Canada’s largest exports to the United States outside of oil and gas.
Diversify: A former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, Carney conspicuously made his first trip as prime minister to meet with leaders in Britain and Europe. Canada has a free-trade agreement with Europe, but it is unclear how much potential Canada has to significantly raise exports to that market.
Poilievre, a lifelong politician, has vigorously pushed to build a pipeline across Canada to ship oil and liquefied natural gas to Europe. Canada currently exports more than 80 percent of its energy to the United States. Carney has also suggested finding new energy markets and building pipelines.
Canadianize: To end the current process of auto parts crossing the border several times, Carney has suggested the creation of “all-in-Canada” parts manufacturing network. He has offered no details on how he would persuade manufacturers to adjust their supply chains to suit Canada’s goals.
Neither candidate has gotten specific. Carney says his experience as a central banker and in private investment (he has a doctorate in economics, worked at Goldman Sachs and was chairman at Brookfield Asset Management and at Bloomberg) makes him the ideal negotiator and economic crisis manager.
Poilievre, who was campaigning on crime, taxes and high prices for food and housing before the tariffs and before the election was called, has not focused as directly on the trade war. Polls show the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote, but the Liberals are likely to have a strong majority of the seats in the House of Commons to form the next government.