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Home @NYTimes

The House’s Policy Bill Would Lose Money. Could Trump’s Tariffs Replace It?

June 11, 2025
in @NYTimes, Business
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The House’s Policy Bill Would Lose Money. Could Trump’s Tariffs Replace It?
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New York Times - Business

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Over the past few months, after President Trump imposed wave after wave of tariffs, companies began paying billions more to bring goods into the country. In May, the Treasury collected more than $22 billion in tariff payments, data released on Wednesday shows, a record high.


Tariff revenue rose sharply in May

Monthly government revenue from customs duties

Source: U.S. Treasury Department

By The New York Times

The income figures are among the first concrete indicators of the costs imposed by Mr. Trump’s trade policies. Although inflation data has yet to reflect price increases from tariffs, companies may soon pass at least part of those extra bills on to their customers. The rest could show up on their balance sheets in the form of narrower profit margins.

The president has made the case that tariffs can generate income for the government while encouraging manufacturers to build their products in America. But even May’s haul remains a tiny share of the federal government’s typical income. The vast majority comes from individual and corporate income taxes.


Tariffs are not a major source of money for the federal government

Government revenue from …

Source: U.S. Treasury Department

Note: Revenues spike in April when most tax returns are filed.

By The New York Times

Nonetheless, House Republicans have argued that the tariff revenue will be enough to offset the projected losses from their huge tax and spending bill, which is currently being hashed out in the Senate.


Tariffs would not pay for Trump’s tax cuts until many have of them have expired

Estimated revenue impact of tariffs vs. tax cuts



+$200 billion

Many of the new tax cuts would expire by the start of 2029

Tariffs would start to offset the tax cuts in 2029

−200

Proposed tax cuts would lead to revenue losses at first,

even taking into account

tariff revenues

−400

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

+$200 billion

Many of the new tax cuts would expire by the start of 2029

Tariffs would start to offset

the tax cuts in 2029

−200

Proposed tax cuts would lead to revenue losses at first,

even taking into account

tariff revenues

−400

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034


Source: Tax Foundation

Note: Neither the budget nor the tariff revenue estimates incorporate increased borrowing costs incurred by higher deficits.

By The New York Times

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