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Home @NYTimes

Trump’s Tax Policy Collides with Market Reality

May 21, 2025
in @NYTimes, Business
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Another spike in Treasury bond yields puts lawmakers in a tricky spot as they push for big cuts that could drastically swell America’s debt pile.

President Trump is trying to drum up Republican support for a megabill that’s roiling the bond market.Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Gaming out the costs of a megabill

Investors in American government debt are getting antsy. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond passed 5 percent on Wednesday, with traders seemingly spooked over a Republican budget bill that could push U.S. fiscal debt into record territory.

President Trump made no mention of that on Tuesday during his trip to Capitol Hill to whip up votes for the legislation.

A reminder of the stakes: The bill could be key to Trump’s domestic agenda, and would determine fiscal policy for years.

It’s also making global investors ponder whether America is still worth investing in. At the moment, traders are betting that deficits will swell, pushing yields higher and therefore raising borrowing costs for businesses and households.

Could that factor into the vote? House Republicans can only afford three defectors given their slim majority. Big differences remain over cuts to Medicaid, but there is a potential breakthrough in the thorny debate over deductions for state and local taxes for homeowners, Politico reports.

It also includes funding for Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, which could cost as much as $542 billion. (SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril are in line to win contracts for that project, Reuters reports.)

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