The outcome of the trade negotiations could determine the trajectory of the global economy.
Top economic officials from the United States and China are poised to meet in Geneva on Saturday for high-stakes negotiations that could determine the fate of a global economy that has been jolted by President Trump’s trade war.
The meetings, scheduled to continue on Sunday, will be the first since Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent and China retaliated with its own levies of 125 percent on U.S. goods. The tit-for-tat effectively cut off trade between the world’s largest economies while raising the possibility of a global economic downturn.
While the stakes for the meetings are high, expectations for a breakthrough that results in a meaningful reduction in tariffs are low. It has taken weeks for China and the United States to even agree to talk, and many analysts expect this weekend’s discussions to revolve around determining what each side wants and how negotiations could move forward.
Still, the fact that Beijing and Washington are finally talking has raised hopes that the tension between them could be defused and that the tariffs could ultimately be lowered. The impact of the levies is already rippling across the global economy, reorienting supply chains and causing businesses to pass additional costs onto consumers.
The negotiations will be watched closely by economists and investors, who fear that a U.S.-Chinese economic war will lead to slower growth and higher prices around the world. Businesses, particularly those that rely on Chinese imports, are also on high alert about the talks as they grapple with how to cope with the new taxes and the uncertainty about whether they will remain in place.
“Both the U.S. and China have strong economic and financial interests in de-escalating their trade hostilities, but a durable détente is hardly in the offing,” said Eswar Prasad, a former director of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.